Temporal Blooming Patterns

*How can historical phenological data highlight climate change?

The Japanese cherry (Prunus Jamasakura) blossoms fully in the month of April. However, it’s full flowering date depends upon the temperatureconditions during February and March. The research paper by Yasuyuki Aono indicates that the ‘full-flowering dates were closely related to the March mean temperature by means of a temperature accumulation index, in which plant growth is considered to be an exponential function of temperature.’As plants reach the various developmental
stages of their annual life cycle, phenological events, such as leafing, flowering,

fruiting occur. The timing of a phenological event fluctuates under the influence of integrated climatic conditions during the period of growth and development. The plantphenological events in springtime under temperate climate occur, when the integrated climatic conditions, mainly temperature, are satisfactory. So,the timing of a plant phenological event often provides information for estimating geographic climatic variation on a local scale.’

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Data Source : Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and itsapplication to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9th century Yasuyuki Aono and Keiko Kazui (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Japan, 2007 Royal Meteorological Society).

I found the missing temperature data with Prof. Yasuyuki’s help from the Kyoto Meteorological Observatory data sheet. Phenology for 15th to 21st centuries
was acquired and analyzed by Aono and Kazui (2008; International Journal of
Climatology, 28, 905-914)

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Sketches & explorations